Information Page
Learn the basics, understand the data, and follow a simple workflow for using Big Picks to make consistent, data-driven decisions.
What is Big Picks?⌄
Big Picks is a tool designed to help sports betters refine their betting strategies and create long term success. Our goal is to provide data-driven insights that empower users to make informed decisions.
By compiling data from various sportsbooks and exchanges, analyzing it with our proprietary algorithm, and presenting it in an easy-to-understand format, we aim to simplify the betting process and highlight opportunities that you can take advantage of.
How the algorithm works⌄
Sportsbooks don't always set their lines to be accurate, but rather to be profitable. They do this by leveraging their odds to create a margin (vig/juice) that ensures they make money regardless of the outcome.
Public betting behavior, news, injuries, market pressure, and other factors can cause sportsbooks to adjust lines in ways that introduce mispricing. These inefficiencies are where opportunity exists for savvy bettors.
Our algorithm identifies these inefficiencies by comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks and exchanges to accurately evaluate the betting market and calculate expected value for any said line.
Example: How mispricing happens⌄
Imagine a perfectly fair coin flip.
A sportsbook might offer:
- Heads: -110
- Tails: -110
If bets are split evenly, the sportsbook collects the extra $10 on every $110 wagered. This guaranteed edge is called the vig. In this scenario, neither side is profitable for bettors long term.
If public sentiment causes most bettors to pile onto Heads, the sportsbook may adjust to mitigate risk:
- Heads: -140
- Tails: +120
The coin is still fair, but heads becomes overpriced, while Tails is now offered at better-than-true odds. This is where Big Picks comes in.
By taking advantage of betting on tails over a large sample size, bettors can find +EV opportunities that yield profits long term.
What you should take away⌄
- Big Picks is a tool designed to refine your betting strategy.
- Short-term results are noisy — the goal is long-term profitability.
- Bankroll management + consistency always beats hype and guesswork.
How to use Big Picks
Start here. This section gives you the workflow, bankroll setup, and the best way to use the dashboards.
Getting started
Set a bankroll and unit size⌄
Pick a bankroll amount that you’re comfortable risking over time — then define 1 unit (1u) as a small percentage of that bankroll.
- Conservative: 1u = 1%
- Standard: 1u = 2%
- Aggressive: 1u = 3–4%
Also pick a maximum bet size (e.g., 5u) to avoid overexposure on any single wager.
It's reccommended to start conservatively and adjust as you gain experience and confidence.
Track your bets from day one⌄
Tracking allows you to have an unbiased analysis of your betting performance. Use tracking apps like Pikkit or Juice Reel to connect books and log results automatically.
Tracking shows whether your process is improving and helps you avoid emotional decisions like chasing losses.
Signing up for sportsbooks and DFS apps⌄
Value can be found across a variety of sportsbooks and DFS apps. Sign up for multiple platforms to maximize your opportunities. These apps usually offer sign-up bonuses and promotions that can enhance your expected value, so be sure to take advantage of them.
Some books are softer than others and may offer better value on certain markets.
EV betting
How EV betting works⌄
Positive EV bets come from variances in pricing between books that lead to market defficiencies. Our algorithm identifies these opprotinities for you to bet on.
EV betting is a long-term game. The edge comes from placing many positive-EV bets with consistent sizing.
Short-term variance is normal — your job is to make good decisions repeatedly.
EV betting workflow⌄
- Go to +EV and filter out books you don't have.
- Calculate your stake by multiplying the Kelly units shown by your unit size.
- Go to your sportsbook and find the exact line. Check this line against ones you've already placed to avoid overlapping bets.
- Always confirm the odds match your book. If the price is different, the EV may no longer be valid.
- Place the bet and repeat regularly for the best long-term results. More volume = more consitentency.
- Check your CLV daily to ensure you're getting value.
Bet365 odds notice⌄
We do not have access to perfectly up-to-date Bet365 odds. If the line has moved from what is shown, use caution before placing the bet. When in doubt, skip the bet or verify the current odds on Bet365 first.
DFS
DFS betting (how it’s different)⌄
DFS apps (Prize Picks, Underdog, Pick6, etc.) involve parlays or flexed bets on player props. Their popilarity comes from ease of use, accessibility for younger betters, and frequent promos.
DFS apps can be harder to find value on because payout structures vary — but the concept is identical to EV betting: build positions where the odds are in your favor.
Promos play a more important role in DFS because they are offered more frequently. Factor them into your decision-making to maximize EV.
DFS betting workflow⌄
- Check to see if your DFS app has a promo available. If so, pair it with a single value leg from the DFS page. Place the maximum allowable bet to take full advantage of the promo, unless that amount exceeds your maxiumum bet size.
- No promo? Use:
- 3 value legs in a standard parlay, or
- 4 value legs in a flexed parlay.
- Pair the highest valued legs with eachother. Check that each leg's odds are even (i.e. no multiplier) and that the line matches what is on the dashboard. Even small changes can significantly impact EV.
- Place your stake between 1u-3u based on the value you were able to pair together in your parlay.
Arbitrage betting
Coming soon⌄
Currently under construction
Tips and Tricks
Some things to look out for when using Big Picks.
Always double-check that the odds you see on your sportsbook match the odds shown in the +EV table. If they don’t match exactly, do not place the bet — even a small difference can significantly change the EV calculation.
Promotions can significantly increase your expected value. Stay on the lookout for them and factor them into your betting strategy.
If you bet too heavily on one outcome (i.e. a single player or team), you risk large swings in your bankroll.
Closing line value is a strong indicator of the value you're getting. Regularly check your CLV using a tracking app.
Just because the fantasy pros projection disagrees with the lines doesn't mean its a bad bet. Use it as one data point to inform your decisions.
We are a resource for you as much as this website is. Feel free to reach out with any questions, we'd love to help!
The Three Rules of Sports Betting
These three habits matter more than any strategy. Follow them religiously to maximize your chances of long-term success.
Never bet what you can’t afford to lose⌄
Your bankroll should never impact real-life responsibilities. Practicing proper bankroll management is key to sustainable betting.
If a loss changes your lifestyle, the stake was too large.
Track everything⌄
Tracking is essential for understanding performance and keeping your process honest.
We recommend third-party apps like Pikkit or Juice Reel that automatically log bets.
Tracking reduces the temptation to chase losses and helps you learn what actually works.
Bet the process, not the outcome⌄
One result doesn’t determine whether a bet was smart. Sports are noisy.
Never let a single outcome change your conviction on your betting strategy. Instead pay attention to long-term results and slowly refine your approach over time.
Focus on making good decisions consistently, and the results will follow.
Sports betting basics
Beginner-friendly lingo and concepts so the dashboards make sense immediately.
Player props vs game lines⌄
Game lines include spreads, totals, and moneylines.
Player props are individual outcomes (points, rebounds, assists, etc.). Props can be softer because there are more markets and more disagreement.
Sharp vs soft books (quick intuition)⌄
Sharp books tend to be efficient and move quickly.
Soft books may lag — which can create opportunity when prices differ.
Sportsbook vs exchange vs DFS⌄
Sportsbook: you bet at a posted price.
Exchange: prices can differ because it behaves more like a market.
DFS: parlay/flex structures and promos affect value. Same concept, different mechanics.
Arbitrage (quick note)⌄
Arbitrage is when different books allow both sides to be bet for a guaranteed return. It exists, but it’s rarer than people think and can lead to limits.
Big Picks is built primarily around long-term +EV opportunities rather than pure arb hunting.
Key definitions
A little more detail than typical glossaries — plus quick examples you can map to the tables.
The number you’re betting over/under (or against) for a market — a spread, total, or player prop.
Example: Player Points 24.5 → Over means 25+ points; Under means 24 or fewer.
The payout price for a bet. Odds imply a probability and determine your return if you win.
Example: -120 means risk $120 to win $100; +110 means risk $100 to win $110.
The probability suggested by the odds (before/with vig depending on the context). Used to compare the market’s view to projections.
Example: If odds imply ~52% but your projection suggests 57%, that gap can create +EV.
The sportsbook’s built-in margin. This is the ‘tax’ you overcome to be profitable long term.
Example: If both sides are -110, the book’s edge is baked in — line shopping helps reduce it.
The long-run value of a bet. Positive EV means the price is favorable relative to your estimated win probability.
Example: If you believe a bet wins 55% but the odds price it like 50%, that’s +EV.
Whether you beat the closing number. Consistently getting better prices than the close is a strong sign you’re making good decisions.
Example: You bet -110, it closes -130 → you got a better price than the market later.
A consistent fraction of your bankroll used for bet sizing. Units keep you steady through variance.
Example: If your bankroll is $1,000 and 1u = 2%, then 1u = $20. A 2.1u stake ≈ $42.
A sizing approach that scales bet size based on edge and price. Big Picks uses Kelly-based principles and reports stake sizes in units.
Example: Higher EV% generally means a higher recommended stake — but your unit stays constant.
Questions? Head back to the homepage for contact + Discord.